Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
3.2 miles South-East of Dunmovin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.2 miles South-East of Dunmovin
36.1083°N, 117.9074°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 00:38:56 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
78h 40m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
6.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
8.9 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 2.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3c8dd72d5263377b7ace05f3cac094cb776a712187b2c7262ac17547638117e0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_105848_pred-36.11--117.91-20260721T0038
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 17, 2026 17:58:51 PST
Source Batch
20260717_105848_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:53.006747+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.