Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
5.0 miles East of Milpitas
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.0 miles East of Milpitas
37.4520°N, 121.8119°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of July 2026
Jul 19, 2026 14:14:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
44h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
48.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
27.9 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 22.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
73c71368e779f911ede1b7d40ceccebacfbc24505c177aa3b5ea9cd4b415174f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_105848_pred-37.45--121.81-20260719T1414
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 17, 2026 17:58:51 PST
Source Batch
20260717_105848_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:53.006747+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.