Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
4.1 miles North-West of Smith Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.1 miles North-West of Smith Valley
38.8652°N, 119.3783°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of July 2026
Jul 18, 2026 03:49:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
9h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
90.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.36
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
10.2 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 4.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7a9d00d1cda4be92df5a039d86697e2bac0f4923c5d199860dfa96f189cd63d8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_105848_pred-38.87--119.38-20260718T0349
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 17, 2026 17:58:51 PST
Source Batch
20260717_105848_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:53.006747+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.