Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
5.4 miles North-West of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.4 miles North-West of Silver Springs
39.4694°N, 119.2787°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 23:35:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
101h 36m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
25.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M2.77 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
14.6 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 9.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7eb2f9c4d01ea67bd7e5fa7e736536e2c50dbafc65e5e2fe4692fb90b460c05c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_105848_pred-39.47--119.28-20260721T2335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 17, 2026 17:58:51 PST
Source Batch
20260717_105848_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:53.006747+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.