Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
15.7 miles South-West of Marietta
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.7 miles South-West of Marietta
38.2484°N, 118.7828°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of July 2026
Jul 22, 2026 08:12:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
102h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
97.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.52
Predicted M2.98 vs actual M3.5
Depth Error
26.1 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 12.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6065b599d78824b1c40eaac05ceb8e9d262fd94a37f7dc12dd0bc76ba83f1380
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_182458_pred-38.25--118.78-20260722T0812
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 01:25:01 PST
Source Batch
20260717_182458_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:55.269807+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.