Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
15.8 miles South of Nye
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.8 miles South of Nye
38.4380°N, 115.3887°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of August 2026
Aug 06, 2026 09:12:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
16.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
463h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
69.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
23.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.14
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M2.8
- 0.14 over limit
Depth Error
16.4 km
Pred. 16.4 km vs actual 0.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
35005b54db2f3c413cdf38614ba902fc07894fbb23e0e5ffb16fb8a7b6e194fe
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_182458_pred-38.44--115.39-20260806T0912
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 01:25:01 PST
Source Batch
20260717_182458_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:55.269807+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.