Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
57.7 miles South-West of Point Arena
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
57.7 miles South-West of Point Arena
38.5496°N, 124.6592°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 09:32:55 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
21.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
584h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
164.0 km
64.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
12.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
24.1 km
Pred. 21.6 km vs actual 2.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7ecb6d9cc267435566d17d117fa15503fcefa439ede5b88c7e46a6ef225658f1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_182458_pred-38.55--124.66-20260811T0932
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 01:25:01 PST
Source Batch
20260717_182458_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:55.269807+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.