Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
13.3 miles South of Fallon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.3 miles South of Fallon
39.2807°N, 118.7675°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of July 2026
Jul 19, 2026 20:02:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
42h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
25.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
29.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M3.05 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
23.4 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 9.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9bb7248f54520377fdb7861d325ed2f1568b66f9c0bc4aa0fedcca6d7274c44c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_182458_pred-39.28--118.77-20260719T2002
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 01:25:01 PST
Source Batch
20260717_182458_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:55.269807+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.