Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
7.1 miles South-West of Fallon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.1 miles South-West of Fallon
39.4059°N, 118.8781°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of July 2026
Jul 29, 2026 20:42:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
283h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
16.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
52.5 h
16.5 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M3.4
Depth Error
20.8 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
32798ed8f6c3e35d45d064bffa3433837693b6884e7a655f4332f4bdbc4a7157
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_182458_pred-39.41--118.88-20260729T2042
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 01:25:01 PST
Source Batch
20260717_182458_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:55.269807+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.