Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
30.1 miles South of Elko
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
30.1 miles South of Elko
40.4123°N, 115.6131°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 21:43:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
644h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
310.7 km
210.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
10.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.46
Predicted M2.96 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
16.7 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 2.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
51ee2daa5d029b46f280b30c73c8b008cfa664a44025ee94f7f8d1aac8cc0a72
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_182458_pred-40.41--115.61-20260813T2143
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 01:25:01 PST
Source Batch
20260717_182458_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:55.269807+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.