Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
37.5 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
37.5 miles South-East of Calexico
32.1887°N, 115.2226°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of July 2026
Jul 20, 2026 19:47:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
56h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
1.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
20.3 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 10.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
39b520992e1c20d83940e922cd7671ed9ecbb5c51f01c0b2d98dd98f49ab23fd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_042646_pred-32.19--115.22-20260720T1947
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 11:26:48 PST
Source Batch
20260718_042646_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:25.217274+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.