Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
28.6 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
28.6 miles South-East of Calexico
32.3818°N, 115.1562°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of July 2026
Jul 22, 2026 00:29:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
85h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
31.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
15.2 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 9.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bce5ab3dde638bbd23f19a06813713c6b88aa17adc7703abc7054b1a972940e2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_042646_pred-32.38--115.16-20260722T0029
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 11:26:48 PST
Source Batch
20260718_042646_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:25.217274+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.