Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
20.7 miles South-West of Newport Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
20.7 miles South-West of Newport Beach
33.3443°N, 118.0709°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of July 2026
Jul 20, 2026 14:03:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
50h 36m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
137.7 km
37.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
7.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
13.8 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 10.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1bd1a8b8c3f847874f248e97057d22feeb4a6d99ae9b5931140b8dd3c6929697
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_042646_pred-33.34--118.07-20260720T1403
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 11:26:48 PST
Source Batch
20260718_042646_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:25.217274+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.