Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
6.6 miles North of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.6 miles North of Big Bear Lake
34.3394°N, 116.9007°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 07:16:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
67h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
99.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
26.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
18.8 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 13.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
12bf52d496440020b2cf33fb1e097cb6d47cc56effea113621cf91eda589954f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_042646_pred-34.34--116.90-20260721T0716
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 11:26:48 PST
Source Batch
20260718_042646_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:25.217274+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.