Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
7.5 miles South of Valyermo
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.5 miles South of Valyermo
34.3387°N, 117.8067°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 13:00:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
73h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
193.0 km
93.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
27.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.19
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
4.3 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 2.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b3416e4ea12d5492813bef26fe79a1f540cbce88de205623664fb4bc85c0ee42
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_042646_pred-34.34--117.81-20260721T1300
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 11:26:48 PST
Source Batch
20260718_042646_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:25.217274+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.