Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
4.7 miles North-East of Fillmore
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.7 miles North-East of Fillmore
34.4568°N, 118.8751°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 18:45:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
79h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
126.5 km
26.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
9.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.41
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
8.6 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 2.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fd51a10a7e18c4154c42bf2ae21ca2e51eaaadcd28e8721fbeb87d752b1ba17e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_042646_pred-34.46--118.88-20260721T1845
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 11:26:48 PST
Source Batch
20260718_042646_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:25.217274+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.