Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
3.8 miles North-East of Avenal
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.8 miles North-East of Avenal
36.0547°N, 120.1020°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of July 2026
Jul 22, 2026 23:27:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
108h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
143.8 km
43.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
16.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.74
Predicted M2.94 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
7.8 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 2.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f3bf6dc7358d7841943bf20e083a04f7f3467d5b3b4ae85d5807c1f30dbf6943
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_042646_pred-36.05--120.10-20260722T2327
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 11:26:48 PST
Source Batch
20260718_042646_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:25.217274+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.