Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
12.4 miles South-East of Indian Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.4 miles South-East of Indian Springs
36.4353°N, 115.5250°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of July 2026
Jul 19, 2026 20:49:47 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
33h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
36.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
35.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M2.56 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
12.2 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 6.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
80fa7e544b41343247e4c818e09603fe8fdfdd7e29218b3ee595ec9ebb3a94ce
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_042646_pred-36.44--115.53-20260719T2049
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 11:26:48 PST
Source Batch
20260718_042646_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:25.217274+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.