Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
16.4 miles South of Crystal Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.4 miles South of Crystal Springs
37.1157°N, 115.2650°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of July 2026
Jul 19, 2026 03:36:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
16h 9m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
61.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
52.2 h
16.2 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M2.08 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
12.9 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 6.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c747f38b5ff73718fa2c19e38e037b44f3509e1841d2393ec76f346bbfa3f644
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_042646_pred-37.12--115.27-20260719T0336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 11:26:48 PST
Source Batch
20260718_042646_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:25.217274+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.