Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
0.9 miles South-East of Lovelock
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
0.9 miles South-East of Lovelock
40.1745°N, 118.4577°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 01:31:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
62h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
108.8 km
8.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
14.9 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 9.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e5a7a0485e41ea2ce650a3b4577cf961593ccade0333724e63a9a52338345da9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_042646_pred-40.17--118.46-20260721T0131
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 11:26:48 PST
Source Batch
20260718_042646_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:25.217274+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.