Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
3.2 miles North-West of Empire
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.2 miles North-West of Empire
40.6112°N, 119.3854°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of July 2026
Jul 18, 2026 21:52:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
10h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
115.9 km
15.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
16.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
14.9 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 9.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a5ee0bf389f5c497a8f14c660ef5d78743bb298a1c19634cc898a0f3b51ab1a3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_042646_pred-40.61--119.39-20260718T2152
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 11:26:48 PST
Source Batch
20260718_042646_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:25.217274+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.