Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
25.2 miles South of Belmont NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
25.2 miles South of Belmont NV
38.2484°N, 116.8016°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of July 2026
Jul 22, 2026 08:12:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
85h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
25.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.58
Predicted M2.98 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
24.1 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
928003e0334f0f2d625d62d0871c1b8c2bf319353d04988308d98043acd0592d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_115537_pred-38.25--116.80-20260722T0812
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 18:55:40 PST
Source Batch
20260718_115537_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:27.760559+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.