Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
23.9 miles South-West of Currant
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
23.9 miles South-West of Currant
38.4405°N, 115.7178°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of August 2026
Aug 06, 2026 09:12:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
16.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
446h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
49.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
23.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.14
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M2.8
- 0.14 over limit
Depth Error
16.4 km
Pred. 16.4 km vs actual 0.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3508eac78cbe108c70256fbd529fefc19580c992a207084fca6b3f68013d925a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_115537_pred-38.44--115.72-20260806T0912
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 18:55:40 PST
Source Batch
20260718_115537_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:27.760559+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.