Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
19.1 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.1 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.4430°N, 118.9725°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of August 2026
Aug 03, 2026 21:02:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
386h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
80.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
28.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
17.1 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 3.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8bf908ac51f54e676e276cb8999da919208978210808ae7e1078ff79636b7f9e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_115537_pred-38.44--118.97-20260803T2102
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 18:55:40 PST
Source Batch
20260718_115537_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:27.760559+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.