Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
5.7 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.7 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
38.5229°N, 122.2877°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 09:32:55 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
21.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
566h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
56.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
24.1 km
Pred. 21.6 km vs actual 2.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
adf62ee3cb66007b8cb4fe013bdbd912fa7e02755b7411440c1b821c5448b425
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_115537_pred-38.52--122.29-20260811T0932
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 18:55:40 PST
Source Batch
20260718_115537_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:27.760559+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.