Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
16.3 miles North of Clear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.3 miles North of Clear Lake
39.2807°N, 122.7311°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of July 2026
Jul 19, 2026 20:02:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
25h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
52.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M3.05 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
16.3 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 2.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9ad8768ca405232386ec3baad0a1c9f46a32fcef137ecc64157deda31803607f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_115537_pred-39.28--122.73-20260719T2002
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 18:55:40 PST
Source Batch
20260718_115537_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:27.760559+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.