Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
13.4 miles East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.4 miles East of Potter Valley
39.3819°N, 122.8685°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of July 2026
Jul 29, 2026 20:42:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
265h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
68.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.94
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
15.3 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 4.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fc7468f7fc92880fe9b3b70f6f8a7b018018212653ce97db454cc35b287c0cbc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_115537_pred-39.38--122.87-20260729T2042
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 18:55:40 PST
Source Batch
20260718_115537_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:27.760559+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.