Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
29.8 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
29.8 miles South-East of Calexico
32.3714°N, 115.1397°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of July 2026
Jul 22, 2026 06:05:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
73h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
23.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
18.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.61
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
17.1 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 10.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
90f41954d6b699a81bf520eba14e702afd658d00a0a6baedad036fd4f24e50a7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_220321_pred-32.37--115.14-20260722T0605
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 05:03:24 PST
Source Batch
20260718_220321_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:52.062655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.