Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
4.1 miles North-West of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.1 miles North-West of Calipatria
33.1498°N, 115.5790°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of July 2026
Jul 20, 2026 08:08:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
27h 4m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.56 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
17.0 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 11.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6a8fa8a2ece25737965a948a92e86251542009cd549583ae75e934398d61cb98
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_220321_pred-33.15--115.58-20260720T0808
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 05:03:24 PST
Source Batch
20260718_220321_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:52.062655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.