Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
9.7 miles North-East of Banning
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.7 miles North-East of Banning
33.9955°N, 116.7291°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of July 2026
Jul 20, 2026 13:52:53 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
32h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
62.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.42
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
15.6 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 10.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7126255adc3174e75462e6260eec13cffa9fac51e0eca89435119219611b1c80
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_220321_pred-34.00--116.73-20260720T1352
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 05:03:24 PST
Source Batch
20260718_220321_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:52.062655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.