Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
6.4 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.4 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
34.3279°N, 116.8652°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 18:36:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
61h 32m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
97.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
18.8 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 13.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7f7aca9f409e4852ea9b0a4cccd7106ac41cd175a96297ae56505fcde9decd88
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_220321_pred-34.33--116.87-20260721T1836
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 05:03:24 PST
Source Batch
20260718_220321_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:52.062655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.