Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
6.0 miles West of Terra Bella
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.0 miles West of Terra Bella
35.9845°N, 119.1487°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of July 2026
Jul 22, 2026 23:19:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
90h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
166.1 km
66.1 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
16.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.49
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
7.8 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 2.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3005629e8dff1ee0d2c492300f494cee827551e09e069e51ba190d03adac0062
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_220321_pred-35.98--119.15-20260722T2319
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 05:03:24 PST
Source Batch
20260718_220321_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:52.062655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.