Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
5.7 miles South-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.7 miles South-East of Bridgeport
38.1863°N, 119.1736°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 04:02:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
118h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
40.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.44
Predicted M2.94 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
10.3 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3ad81ec6c826eb21233ba1efba8764ed77ae4abb23b24a265a1fe0e034ad6950
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_220321_pred-38.19--119.17-20260724T0402
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 05:03:24 PST
Source Batch
20260718_220321_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:52.062655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.