Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
10.9 miles East of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.9 miles East of Hawthorne NV
38.5398°N, 118.4243°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 12:51:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
55h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
82.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
28.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.96
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M3.5
Depth Error
17.1 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 12.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2baed00c805dcd1a339d84bc6fa18156888c693a68b6fa132b65cdfa996c58c6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_220321_pred-38.54--118.42-20260721T1251
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 05:03:24 PST
Source Batch
20260718_220321_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:52.062655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.