Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
1.9 miles South-East of Chester
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.9 miles South-East of Chester
40.3005°N, 121.1993°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 16:33:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
107h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
95.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.00
Predicted M2.1 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
18.9 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 13.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bcccf74e6818dfafab0be06509c09604238a083ebe7514ebd0ecf1410af163bc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_220321_pred-40.30--121.20-20260723T1633
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 05:03:24 PST
Source Batch
20260718_220321_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:52.062655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.