Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
3.8 miles West of Convict Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.8 miles West of Convict Lake
37.5955°N, 118.9193°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 20:05:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
151h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
81.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
24.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.60
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
20.8 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 6.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bceff832330dbd4a9df43dde10ee64a5e17832120055705ac0402c83cf6e73f7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_053930_pred-37.60--118.92-20260725T2005
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 12:39:33 PST
Source Batch
20260719_053930_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:54.458214+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.