Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
18.8 miles South of Belmont NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.8 miles South of Belmont NV
38.3408°N, 116.8741°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 07:55:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
91h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
33.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
25.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.28
Predicted M2.98 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
21.5 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 7.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
58dab064278bc445088730bdf23697edfed9cd2dcb8b512d4b75f89d9c5bd9bf
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_053930_pred-38.34--116.87-20260723T0755
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 12:39:33 PST
Source Batch
20260719_053930_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:54.458214+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.