Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
4.6 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.6 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
38.5415°N, 122.2834°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 09:20:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
21.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
572h 40m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
54.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.14
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
24.4 km
Pred. 21.6 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
72433b0fa7087239b395e74ffff624e0117ef215e2c5d0fcb889fc318499c13f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_053930_pred-38.54--122.28-20260812T0920
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 12:39:33 PST
Source Batch
20260719_053930_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:54.458214+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.