Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
12.4 miles North-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.4 miles North-East of Potter Valley
39.4038°N, 122.9006°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of July 2026
Jul 30, 2026 20:27:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
271h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
14.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.64
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
16.3 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 5.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1500e6792c23713c67050cc170ab225b5470dd8c69ffb9ecf49585c971c12561
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_053930_pred-39.40--122.90-20260730T2027
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 12:39:33 PST
Source Batch
20260719_053930_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:54.458214+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.