Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
21.4 miles North-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.4 miles North-East of Potter Valley
39.4812°N, 122.7615°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of July 2026
Jul 20, 2026 19:44:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
31h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
68.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.85
Predicted M3.05 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
15.5 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 1.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f1818440c82930c37233b4b52d12b641d106c4bb8d8a8802092c231458ffeb93
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_053930_pred-39.48--122.76-20260720T1944
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 12:39:33 PST
Source Batch
20260719_053930_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:54.458214+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.