Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
18.5 miles South-West of Newport Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.5 miles South-West of Newport Beach
33.3765°N, 118.0643°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 14:06:06 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
39h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
158.8 km
58.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
16.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
17.1 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 11.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
52b6f5a41e02fa9c76d0997bec15cedb3dd1f20f25c6c83685bf2321206262e9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_154906_pred-33.38--118.06-20260721T1406
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 22:49:08 PST
Source Batch
20260719_154906_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 11:03:45.590362+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.