Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
3.0 miles South-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.0 miles South-East of Ojai
34.4275°N, 119.1961°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 12:04:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
85h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
51.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
13.1 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 7.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
60459a58ef0e3448064947d473bc3bd67f2740d8f94ed4b9fc99b80cfa3e75a3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_154906_pred-34.43--119.20-20260723T1204
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 22:49:08 PST
Source Batch
20260719_154906_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 11:03:45.590362+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.