Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
1.2 miles South-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.2 miles South-East of Ojai
34.4401°N, 119.2243°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 00:35:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
73h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
53.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.51
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
9.7 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 7.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fbb4c2aa381eb524e64532aa87742cdf0c13e8c5e2272ab01d3b1983549ac193
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_154906_pred-34.44--119.22-20260723T0035
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 22:49:08 PST
Source Batch
20260719_154906_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 11:03:45.590362+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.