Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
1.7 miles East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.7 miles East of Ojai
34.4546°N, 119.2137°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of July 2026
Jul 22, 2026 18:50:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
68h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
54.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
19.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.79
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
12.7 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 7.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a1447b6386c7763015c8cc4844a5012f5f78bc96bdf94346785808a9f23a6e21
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_154906_pred-34.45--119.21-20260722T1850
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 22:49:08 PST
Source Batch
20260719_154906_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 11:03:45.590362+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.