Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
4.5 miles South-West of Brentwood
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.5 miles South-West of Brentwood
37.8795°N, 121.7461°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 08:21:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
33h 32m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
89.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
29.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
9.3 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 4.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ecc09df11c5343b375c9cc2d9594b31a30e1d0033d0d1f005308ef559814b63d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_154906_pred-37.88--121.75-20260721T0821
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 22:49:08 PST
Source Batch
20260719_154906_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 11:03:45.590362+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.