Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
7.3 miles North-East of Tahoe City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.3 miles North-East of Tahoe City
39.2518°N, 120.0603°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 22:34:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
119h 44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
81.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.74
Predicted M2.94 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
14.1 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 8.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ddbe96ba3302718ae6d5a6b368500f267acd98262f5a4aac572b2760b50e2105
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_154906_pred-39.25--120.06-20260724T2234
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 22:49:08 PST
Source Batch
20260719_154906_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 11:03:45.590362+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.