Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
18.8 miles South of Orland
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.8 miles South of Orland
39.4871°N, 122.2989°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 17:49:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
91h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
33.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.49
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
33.6 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 28.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
30fb93b12cd4a666e9d4aed618d29610f1b3c94335f0786845d56fcf1e99c793
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_154906_pred-39.49--122.30-20260723T1749
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 22:49:08 PST
Source Batch
20260719_154906_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 11:03:45.590362+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.