Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
12.4 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.4 miles South-West of Eureka
40.7268°N, 124.3784°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of July 2026
Jul 20, 2026 15:06:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
16h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
48.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
26.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.99
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
16.6 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 10.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d488065d4d80b83e1dd29ed7826a2732c1e2a8f7773e5b4a1ca843adcf02bdcb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_154906_pred-40.73--124.38-20260720T1506
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 22:49:08 PST
Source Batch
20260719_154906_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 11:03:45.590362+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.