Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
28.3 miles West of Tuscarora
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
28.3 miles West of Tuscarora
41.2109°N, 116.7571°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of July 2026
Jul 20, 2026 09:21:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
10h 32m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
287.4 km
187.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
18.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.08 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.1 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 6.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3f12c17d1b0cdc7a689adb41639f6061db76cc2bd920308af07317bfd832a4c0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_154906_pred-41.21--116.76-20260720T0921
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 22:49:08 PST
Source Batch
20260719_154906_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 11:03:45.590362+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.