Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
3.4 miles East of Mammoth Lakes
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.4 miles East of Mammoth Lakes
37.6387°N, 118.9107°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 20:05:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
133h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
77.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
24.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.60
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
20.8 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 6.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
115aef6ad5bcb1a3927a66e33d6cfbae1c2b9e6e10fd4741c02c81bb25fb8391
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_232003_pred-37.64--118.91-20260725T2005
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 06:20:06 PST
Source Batch
20260719_232003_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 11:03:47.755190+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.